The Titus domino effect

We've seen the domino effect that the Titus last-minute jump to fill the Daskas vacancy has caused.  David Parks enters the race immediately, with a hand-picked replacement for his own seat.

On the surface, the Dems seem to have this one under control.  But sources who play both sides (and even some in their own camp) admit that appearances are deceiving in this instance.

First is the Manendo factor.  He sees the institutional choice of Parks as being his loss in a popularity contest, which is more or less true.  Manendo has been battle tested before, having everything but the kitchen sink thrown at him in the past, and Parks has never seen that kind of political gunfire.  Manendo is not one to back away from a fight.  Years ago there was an intern in Carson City who accused him of making a pass at her, and insiders said he could not survive a primary.  He proved them wrong and was vindicated in the end as news emerged that his accuser was of questionable credibility and had a penchant for telling glamorous stories based on little fact.  He is getting the same message and the same pressure now to stay out, when in truth the reason he was not the primary choice was insider popularity issues.

Next is the Horsford factor.  He is the heir apparent for the minority leader post, and possibly the majority leader post if the dominos fall the right way in November.  But the caucus uniting behind him is not going to be as easy as they would like it to sound.  Many have been there longer, many feel it is their turn, and Horsford's view that he is the leader-in-waiting will irritate all that were formerly in the Titus camp. 

Allison Copening takes a big loss from Titus' departure.  With Titus and Lindsey Jydstrup at the helm of the campaign, they would have been able to take a candidate who has approached a difficult race as a den mother looking to make a lot of new friends and turned that into a credible race in spite of the candidate.  The support for her was tepid before the departure, and odds are it won't improve from here.  Her campaign was the pivotal point to make Titus majority leader and flip senate control, and now it is a complete unknown both with her and the new leadership.

The advantage on this move is for Beers and Bill Raggio, who can now argue to contributors that the Dem caucus leadership in the senate is a complete unknown.  The reasons to support Copening have dwindled.

But the Dems loss in the senate is countered by their gain in the CD3 race.  Titus now has institutional support, won CD3 in her race for governor, and plays well in the rural areas of the district that are crucial for Porter's success.  Porter has a lot of work ahead of him.