Top of the ticket could spell trouble for Heller

Las Vegas- Although the Republican and Democratic presidential primaries are still far from over, results from those races may be pointing to a tougher-than-expected reelection campaign for Congressman Dean Heller (R-NV) in the largely rural 2nd Congressional District.

The trouble for Heller, several observers believe, would come from the combination of a win in the Democratic primary for Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) and a lingering disaffection among Nevada Republicans over the loss of former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney in the GOP primaries.

“In Congressional District 2, most of the counties went to Barack Obama [in the Jan. 19 Democratic caucuses],” said Steve Platt, chairman of the Carson City Democratic Party.  “He was able to pull independents and Republicans in a pretty conservative congressional district to his side.”

Obama defeated Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) in 11 of Nevada’s 17 counties in the Jan. 19 caucuses.  Factoring out Clinton’s huge majority in Clark County, Obama won the rest of the state by more than seven points.

“If he’s on the ballot,” said Platt, “that’ll help [the Democratic candidate in the 2nd district] moreso than if Hillary’s at the top of the ticket.”

Of course, first the Democrats will need a candidate to challenge Heller.  Nevada Democratic Chairwoman Jill Derby, who lost to Heller by less than 13,000 votes in 2006, is considering a second run, but told PolitickerNV.com today that she “hadn’t made that decision yet.”

“I would expect by the end of next week to make that decision,” said Derby.

“If it’s Obama on the ticket, that helps [Democrats] out a lot more than if Hillary Clinton is on the ticket in those types of districts,” said UNLV political scientist David Damore today.  “It could be very interesting.  At least it will be competitive, which is something that district is usually not.”

Compounding Heller’s difficulty is a sense of antipathy among some conservatives toward current Republican frontrunner Ariz. Sen. John McCain.

“The problem is we’ve got an awful lot of people in Washoe County who don’t care anymore because they don’t like who’s running for president,” said Heidi Smith, chairwoman of the Washoe County Republican Party.

“We went 44 percent for Romney.  The problem’s going to be getting those 44 percent to come out.”

Damore doesn’t believe that sort of disaffection will have too large an impact on the race, however.

“It’s not good news for [Heller],” said Damore, “but I can’t imagine in the end that all those people are going to stay home who say they’re going to stay home.  It’s just sort of sour grapes right now.”

Zach Moyle, executive director of the Nevada Republican Party, agrees that an Obama ticket would be harder to campaign against than a Clinton one.

“Hillary Clinton has a hatred level in this country—not a dislike level, but a hatred level,” said Moyle.  "People don’t want another Clinton administration.”

Moyle disagreed that the top of the Republican ticket could hurt Heller’s chances.

“We’ve got ten months to work with our nominee and to secure our base and make sure they turn out and that’s what we intend to do."

Moyle also believes that the Republicans’ significant voter registration advantage in the district and Heller’s record in the current congress will be enough to ensure his reelection.  Voter registration numbers from before the Jan. caucuses give Republicans an edge of more than 43,000 or 11.6 percent of total registered voters in the district.

“I don’t think you can find a more loyal person to his constituents than Dean Heller,” said Moyle.  “He’s done a phenomenal job in congress.  He has fully come through on the promise that he made to the voters and I think they realize that.

“[Voters] know that it’s as important to get to the polls and vote for Dean Heller as it is to vote for a president.”

Platt disagrees that Heller’s record will be a boon in seeking reelection.

“I think what’s going to hurt Dean Heller more is his voting on things like SCHIP.  Time after time standing with the president on those types of issues—I think that is going to hurt him here.”

Congressman Heller’s office did not return repeated requests for comment for this article.