Ronald Reagan

Neither U.S. Sens. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) nor John McCain (R-Ariz.) won their party's respective caucus in the state this year, but barring the unthinkable, one of the two is almost certain to carry the state in the general election.

The last time a loser of Nevada's caucus system went on to carry the state in the general election was in 1988 when Republicans chose Pat Robertson over George H.W. Bush. Bush became the nominee and carried the state in November.

In 1976, Gerald Ford lost the Republican caucus to Ronald Reagan by 66 to 29 percent, but won the state in the general election.

Nevada’s early caucus has given voters a true relevance in the presidential nomination process, perhaps for the first time in state history.  Past caucuses have gone largely unnoticed, and presidential primaries held in 1976 and 1980 were not hotly contested.  In 1976, Ronald Reagan defeated Gerald Ford here by a 66%-29% margin, but lost primaries in Oregon and Kentucky that had attracted considerably more attention.  On the Democratic side, Jerry Brown won Nevada 53%-23% over Jimmy Carter.  In 1980, Carter defeated Ted Kennedy by a 38%-29% margin.

Timing in politics is everything, and it’s sometimes interesting to wonder how the careers of key players would have progressed if the voters had gone a different way.

Look at the race of United States Senator in 1970: what if Bill Raggio had been successful in unseating Democrat Howard Cannon?  Raggio could be in his seventh term as a U.S. Senator right now – and given his track record in Carson City over the last four decades, he would likely have emerged as a powerful Washington insider with considerable seniority.

A Raggio victory in ’70 would have meant now opportunity for Chic Hecht to take on Cannon in 1982, or for Richard Bryan to unseat Hecht six years later.  There would have been no open seat for John Ensign to compete for in 2000.  Maybe Ensign would have run for Governor instead when Kenny Guinn left office in 2006? Surely he would not have hung around until 2012, when Raggio would have been up for re-election again.