NV-3

Early returns are showing Republican Dean Heller and Democrat Dina Titus leading in the races for the 2nd and 3rd Congressional Districts.

With 25.9 percent of the votes counted, Heller is leading Democrat Jill Derby 49.6 to 43.9 percent.

In the 3rd Congressional district, Titus is leading Republican incumbent Jon Porter 47.6 percent to 42.1 percent.

Just over half of all active Nevada voters have already cast their ballots in early and absentee voting, but it's the half that has yet to vote that will make all the difference in two closely-watched Nevada congressional contests.

In the 2nd and 3rd districts, the campaigns for Democrats Jill Derby and Dina Titus both said they are happy with early voting figures showing Democrats participating at higher rates than Republicans. In Clark County, where Titus is running against third-term U.S. Rep. Jon Porter (R-Henderson), Democrats are trouncing Republicans 51 percent to 32 percent, according to early voting statistics. In Washoe County, where Derby is trying to oust freshman U.S. Rep. Dean Heller (R-Carson City), early-voting Democrats were outnumbering Republicans 45 percent to 38 percent.

An exit poll of early voters conducted by the Las Vegas-based DNA Communications Consulting Group on Oct. 28 showed Derby leading Heller 55 percent to 44 percent.

John Ensign

• U.S. Sen. John Ensign (R-Las Vegas) strays off-message on Gov. Sarah Palin (R-Alaska): "Well, I do not think that Barack Obama or her are experienced enough to be president of the United States—neither one of them."
• Statewide voter turnout: 46.51%
• Lowest early turnout county: Esmeralda County, 11.8%
• Highest early turnout county: Carson City, 57.3%
• Clark County early turnout: 48.1%
• The Obama campaign told key organizers on a conference call today that they are ahead in early voting in Nevada by 13 percent. 
• Mason Dixon poll of NV-3, MoE +/-5%

Jon Porter (R-Las Vegas): 44%
Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas): 44%

Mason Dixon poll of NV-2, MoE +/-5%

Dean Heller (R-Carson City): 50%
Jill Derby (D-Gardnerville): 37%

With less than a week to go there is much about the 2008 election that remains up in the air. While all indicators point to a good night for the Democrats both in Nevada and nationally, exactly how this will play out is the source of much speculation in spaces such as this one.  In that spirit, here are my thoughts.

Nationally, I expect Barack Obama to hold all states won by Kerry and easily pick-up the two states Bush took from the Democrats in 2004 (Iowa and New Mexico with twelve Electoral College Votes combined).  It is unlikely that John McCain will take either New Hampshire (which Bush won in 2000) or Pennsylvania from the Democrats, but I do expect him to hold the Dakotas and Montana even though he is struggling to close-out those states.  

Under this scenario, Obama would be six shy of the presidency; meaning McCain would have to virtually run the table to win. This also means that an Obama win in Nevada, without another pick-up, would not be sufficient to deliver the White House to the Democrats. 

Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas) holds a narrow 47 to 45 percent lead -- well within the 5 percent margin of error -- over U.S. Rep. Jon Porter (R-Las Vegas) according to a recent Research 2000 survey

The National Republican Congressional Committee is up with a television advertisement today that targets Democrat Dina Titus on taxes, saying as state Senate minority leader, Titus sought to raise taxes on businesses while failing to pay her own taxes on several occasions.

"Dina Titus is the worst," a voiceover says in the 30-second ad.

Titus is trying to unseat third-term U.S. Rep. Jon Porter (R-Henderson) in what is widely seen as one of the most competitive House races in the nation. In late September, Porter released a survey showing him leading Titus 41 percent to 39 percent, while Titus released a poll at the same time showing her leading 47 percent to 36 percent.

Can U.S. Rep. Jon Porter (R-Henderson) survive the Democratic tidal wave this year?  A new poll says maybe, according to the R-J. 

A Maxon-Dixon poll for the Review-Journal gives Porter a 3-point lead, and has the negatives climbing for state Sen. Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas).  The sample for the poll was only 236, which is a low, random and strange number to be sampled for a district of this size.  UNLV professor and PolitickerNV.com contributor David Damore was surprised by the poll results, saying ""I have to tell you, I wouldn't have expected this."

Former Gov. Mitt Romney: Getty Images PhotoWASHINGTON – Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is throwing his chips in for U.S. Rep. Jon Porter (R-Henderson), who is facing the toughest re-election bid of his career.

Romney hosted a Thursday lunchtime fundraiser for Porter at a private residence in Boulder City with 25 people in attendance. The Porter campaign did not specify how much money the event raised for the campaign’s coffers.

Earlier in the day, Romney led a grassroots rally for about 200 campaign volunteers. The former GOP presidential candidate was joined by several notable Nevada Republicans including Clark County Commissioner Bruce Woodbury, state Sen. Warren Hardy, Assemblyman Joe Hardy, and Boulder City Mayor Roger Tobler.

U.S. Rep. Jon PorterWASHINGTON – U.S. Rep. Jon Porter (R-Henderson) may have been one of only a handful of vulnerable members to support the bailout bill on Monday, but Porter's Democratic opponent insists the vote isn't a profile of courage. "I don't see it as a vote that should be looked at in a vacuum," state Sen. Dina Titus (D-Henderson) said Tuesday evening in a telephone interview.

Titus argued that Porter was in the pocket of Wall Street and big business, saying the Republican had raked in contributions from the financial sector. Porter's vote, the Democrat said, was simply an extension of his allegiance to the financial industry.

Titus, embroiled in what is quickly becoming one of the nastiest and hard-fought House races in the country, was responding to a Wall Street Journal column Porter's campaign was circulating to reporters the day after Porter voted in support of the $700 billion rescue package. The column praised Porter and the six other vulnerable members who "stuck their necks out" and voted yes on the bill.

U.S. Rep. Jon PorterThe National Republican Congressional Committee has no clear plans on dramatically scaling back its advertising for U.S. Rep. Jon Porter, as Democrats had hoped.

Earlier this week, journalist Jon Ralston wrote ominously that the committee was appearing to scale back on its advertising plans for Porter, a third term incumbent who is facing a difficult re-election bid against Democratic state Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus.

"That can't be good," Ralston wrote.

But conversations with broadcast television stations in the Las Vegas-area district suggest that Democrats might not want to get too excited just yet. The NRCC still has plans to advocate for Porter.