NV-2

Early returns are showing Republican Dean Heller and Democrat Dina Titus leading in the races for the 2nd and 3rd Congressional Districts.

With 25.9 percent of the votes counted, Heller is leading Democrat Jill Derby 49.6 to 43.9 percent.

In the 3rd Congressional district, Titus is leading Republican incumbent Jon Porter 47.6 percent to 42.1 percent.

Just over half of all active Nevada voters have already cast their ballots in early and absentee voting, but it's the half that has yet to vote that will make all the difference in two closely-watched Nevada congressional contests.

In the 2nd and 3rd districts, the campaigns for Democrats Jill Derby and Dina Titus both said they are happy with early voting figures showing Democrats participating at higher rates than Republicans. In Clark County, where Titus is running against third-term U.S. Rep. Jon Porter (R-Henderson), Democrats are trouncing Republicans 51 percent to 32 percent, according to early voting statistics. In Washoe County, where Derby is trying to oust freshman U.S. Rep. Dean Heller (R-Carson City), early-voting Democrats were outnumbering Republicans 45 percent to 38 percent.

An exit poll of early voters conducted by the Las Vegas-based DNA Communications Consulting Group on Oct. 28 showed Derby leading Heller 55 percent to 44 percent.

John Ensign

• U.S. Sen. John Ensign (R-Las Vegas) strays off-message on Gov. Sarah Palin (R-Alaska): "Well, I do not think that Barack Obama or her are experienced enough to be president of the United States—neither one of them."
• Statewide voter turnout: 46.51%
• Lowest early turnout county: Esmeralda County, 11.8%
• Highest early turnout county: Carson City, 57.3%
• Clark County early turnout: 48.1%
• The Obama campaign told key organizers on a conference call today that they are ahead in early voting in Nevada by 13 percent. 
• Mason Dixon poll of NV-3, MoE +/-5%

Jon Porter (R-Las Vegas): 44%
Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas): 44%

Mason Dixon poll of NV-2, MoE +/-5%

Dean Heller (R-Carson City): 50%
Jill Derby (D-Gardnerville): 37%

With less than a week to go there is much about the 2008 election that remains up in the air. While all indicators point to a good night for the Democrats both in Nevada and nationally, exactly how this will play out is the source of much speculation in spaces such as this one.  In that spirit, here are my thoughts.

Nationally, I expect Barack Obama to hold all states won by Kerry and easily pick-up the two states Bush took from the Democrats in 2004 (Iowa and New Mexico with twelve Electoral College Votes combined).  It is unlikely that John McCain will take either New Hampshire (which Bush won in 2000) or Pennsylvania from the Democrats, but I do expect him to hold the Dakotas and Montana even though he is struggling to close-out those states.  

Under this scenario, Obama would be six shy of the presidency; meaning McCain would have to virtually run the table to win. This also means that an Obama win in Nevada, without another pick-up, would not be sufficient to deliver the White House to the Democrats. 

Congressional candidate Jill DerbyDENVER – Jill Derby suggested in an interview today that a new poll showing her narrowly trailing U.S. Rep. Dean Heller (R-Carson City) is evidence that her campaign is gaining traction.

“I think the fact that we haven’t really started up yet with media, etc. and we are as close as we are is very significant,” she said.

Derby was referring to a new survey released last week showing her trailing the freshman Heller by just 5 percent. A survey released earlier on in the summer showed Derby trailing by a 14-percent margin.

Derby, who is here this week to attend the Democratic National Convention, indicated that her campaign would be coming up with media as soon as September.

DENVER – One of the Silver State’s noted political observers threw cold water on a surprising poll that showed Democrat Jill Derby running a surprisingly strong challenge to U.S. Rep. Dean Heller (R-Carson City).

“I find that poll hard to believe,” said newspaper columnist Jon Ralston, referring to the survey released last week finding Derby within five points of the first term Heller. The same survey in June found Derby 15 points behind.

“I don’t know whether they oversampled Washoe County, which Jill Derby beat Dean Heller last time but then got crushed in rural Nevada, which is the majority of the district,” Ralston continued. “But that poll doesn’t sound right to me. If that poll is right, though, that is saying something that no one else picked up on.”

DENVER — U.S. Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Las Vegas) said today that a new poll showing Jill Derby within striking distance of U.S. Rep. Dean Heller (R-Carson City) was evidence that the race, once thought to be something of a long shot for Democrats, was moving in Derby’s direction.

“We have the perfect candidate in Jill Derby. There isn’t anyone better suited in the state and more qualified to serve in Congress than Jill,” Berkley told PolitickerNV.com as she walked out of the Nevada delegation’s breakfast this morning at the Marriott hotel.

Derby, a former chairwoman of the Nevada Democratic Party, lost narrowly to Heller in their 2006 duel. The district, which encompasses a wide swath of area outside of Clark County, has historically trended Republican. But a poll released last week showed Derby trailing by only a 5-percent margin, down from the 14-point margin the same poll found in June.

A new Reno Gazette-Journal/KTVN poll finds Democratic challenger Jill Derby (D-Carson City) is within striking distance of incumbent U.S. Rep. Dean Heller (R-Carson City) in the 2nd Congressional District.

Derby, a former state Democratic chairwoman, trails Heller 47 percent to 42 percent, according to the poll. However, the 5 percent margin of error and recent registration swings in the 2nd District favoring Democrats suggest the poll could actually be good news for the challenger.

In a June 14 Las Vegas Sun poll, Heller led Derby by 14 points, 53-39; he defeated Derby by five points in locking up his first term two years ago.

Registration numbers show Democrats have picked up 14,000 new voters in the district since then, while Republicans have lost voters.

Derby has also benefitted from financial support from the national Democratic party, which has targetted Heller's seat as vulnerable to takeover.

Congressional Quarterly  is changing its forecasts on two competitive U.S. House races in Nevada, and in both cases, there is good news for the Democrats.

CQ announced Wednesday it was shifting the 2nd Congressional District race between U.S. Rep. Dean Heller (R-Carson City) and Democrat Jill Derby from "Republican" to "Leans Republican," acknowledging the race is closer than previously thought.

The forecast looks even better for state Sen. Dina Titus (D-Henderson) in the 3rd Congressional District, the publication said. CQ switched Titus' race with incumbent U.S. Rep. Jon Porter (R-Henderson) from "Leans Republican" to its most competitive category: "No clear favorite."

Congressional candidate Jill Derby: Campaign Photo Democratic congressional candidate Jill Derby released a detailed energy plan Wednesday, with recommendations for reducing fuel demand, expanding renewable energy sources and expanded drilling in areas with "low environmental risk."

Derby said the nation must commit to a "Apollo-Project style investment" in renewable energy technology, specifically mentioning solar and geothermal energy as viable options.

Derby also advocated limited on-shore and off-shore oil drilling to meet demand until renewable sources become more readily available, though she stipulated drilling should only be conducted in areas that can sustain it without serious environmental damage.