Bob Barr

Last week we speculated that especially in Nevada, U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) may be hurt more by third party candidates than his opponent, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.). A recent online survey by Zogby International conducted between June 11-30 seems to support that scenario.

Ralph Nader recently filed with Nevada's Secretary of State to appear on the presidential ballot as an independent candidate, but will anyone notice?

Past statewide elections confirm the old adage that every vote counts. When Harry Reid (D-Searchlight) first ran for U.S. Senate in 1974, he lost by just 624 votes to Republican Paul Laxalt, who also lost his first U.S. Senate bid by fewer than 100 votes ten years earlier. In 1998, Reid edged out then U.S. Rep. John Ensign (R-Las Vegas) by 428 votes. In both instances, third party candidates drew many times the margin of victory and potentially had a significant impact on the outcome.

Could Nader's candidacy make a similar difference? History suggests it may not.

Running as the Green party candidate in 2000, Nader garnered 15,008 votes -- representing about 2.5% of the vote total -- but less than George W. Bush's 3.5 percent margin of victory over Vice President Al Gore. Despite an even closer race in 2004 in which Bush defeated U.S. Sen. John Kerry (D-Ill.) by 2.6%, the 4,838 votes cast for Nader represented just 0.6% of the vote -- and one fourth of his impact from the prior election.

Although Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik attracted even fewer votes than Nader in 2004, circumstances are very different this year. The Libertarian party is running a prominent conservative, former U.S. Rep. Bob Barr (R-Ga.), and his running mate is Las Vegas native and TV celebrity Wayne Allyn Root. Especially in Nevada, it's possible that U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) has more to worry about from third party candidates than his opponent.

LAS VEGAS-Alas, no Las Vegan will top the Libertarian ticket for the presidency.  It appears, however, that Las Vegas oddsmaker Wayne Allyn Root will take the vice presidential spot on the ticket behind former Ga. Congressman Bob Barr, who won the Libertarian nomination this weekend in Denver.

Politicker.com's own Jeremy Pelzer was at the Libertarian Convention this weekend and has some outstanding coverage of the even leading to Root's securing the V.P. nod.

After the events of last week, one thing that is for certain is that there is never a dull moment when it comes to Nevada politics. Indeed, last week the state was treated to the spectacle of Republicans acting like Democrats, Democrats acting like, well Democrats, and Gov. Jim Gibbons doing a Bush-like late Friday afternoon, avoid the media document dump.

After taking grief for months for their party's inability to effectively organize and efficiently conduct party business, there must have been plenty of smiles among the state's Democratic brain trust as the normally well-managed Nevada GOP saw its state convention descend into a chaotic mess compliments of the Ron Paul-fueled insurgency.

Libertarian presidential nominee hopeful Wayne Allyn RootLAS VEGAS—Las Vegas’ very own presidential candidate, Wayne Allyn Root, learned last week that his race for the Libertarian Party’s nod for the presidency has gotten a bit harder.  Announcing his resignation from the Democratic Party, former Alaska Sen. Mike Gravel has cast his lot with the Libertarians and is now seeking the nomination that until recently seemed headed Root’s way.

Root, reached for comment today, sounded unconcerned about Gravel’s entry and even optimistic about what it could mean for the Libertarian Party.

“[Gravel]’s not a Libertarian,” said Root.  “There’s nothing about him that is Libertarian.  I don’t think the Libertarian Party has any interest in a senator that was defeated twenty-five years ago who doesn’t believe in anything that resembles Libertarian philosophy.”