State Dems target Beers and Heck for Senate takeover

Nevada Democrats think they can oust Republican Senators Bob Beers and Joe Heck next year to take control of the State Senate as the GOP defends a narrow 11-10 majority in the upper house.

“People think it’s a Democratic year,” said Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus, the head of the Senate Democratic Caucus. “I believe both are vulnerable based on their records, especially Bob Beers."

While Democratic officials are quick to point out that no one has “officially” declared, they believe that demographic trends and a nationalized election will be the keys to their victory. Democrats have been gaining in voter registration in recent years, but still lag behind Republicans in both districts.

“These are two districts that are very competitive in voter registration numbers,” said Lindsey Jydstrup, Democratic Legislative Caucus Director. “And they’ve become more so in recent months. We’ve seen these districts trend definitely more Democratic.

As of October, the 5th Senate District had 47,265 registered Republicans and 45,456 Democrats, giving Republicans an edge of just under two percent, according to the Nevada Secretary of State’s website. The gap in the 6th District was almost as close, with a Republican advantage of only three and a half percent.

Jydstrup believes that public interest in the presidential caucus has helped Democrats with voter registration.

“The reason that we’re seeing this trend in registration is because we have Democrats so energized right now,” she said. “That is a tremendous asset for not only the national races but also for the state legislative races and down the ticket.”

Heck, a 46-year-old Henderson Republican who won a Senate seat in 2004, isn’t nearly as impressed.

“I think they’re saying it because they’re trying to get people to believe it,” said Heck.

Heck says the district hasn’t changed that much, noting that the last time he ran, Republicans had a registration edge of about 3,000.

“Now we’re at about 2,000. The demographic hasn’t changed. I think they hoped it would have changed, but it hasn’t,” said Heck. “And in 2004, I beat the Democratic candidate by thirteen points.”

That candidate was Richard Fitzpatrick, and he believes that Heck is vulnerable – as long as the Democrat is well-financed.

“The challenge is that there are so many new people in a district like that that large expenditures make a large impact,” said Fitzpatrick, who spent eight years in the Michigan Legislature. “People rely on the media for decision-making, and we couldn’t overcome the huge amount of money that was spent.”

Fitzpatrick did not receive financial backing from the state party, he said.

In 2008, however, things may be different for Democratic challengers.

“Because our incumbents are all in very safe districts, all of our resources will go to those races,” said Titus. “Individual senators will give money and the caucus will give money. I think the resources will be there to mount effective campaigns."

Titus also said that national groups, eager to put the Senate in Democratic hands ahead of future redistricting, are paying attention to the races, although she didn’t provide details.

Again, Heck was dismissive of Democratic efforts.

“Likewise, that issue is not lost on the national Republican party,” said Heck. “The third congressional district is going to be a hotbed of activity for both national parties, and that will spill into the fifth District.”

And Heck was quick to argue against Democratic claims of his vulnerability.

“They have yet to come out with any reason as to why I’d be vulnerable,” said Heck. “I stand by my record and my votes. I think if I was that vulnerable they wouldn’t be having such a hard time finding people to run against me.”

While voter registration numbers and financing may be the key to winning in the 5th District, Titus intends to make the race in the 6th much more personal.

“That race will be all about Beers and all the crazy things he’s done,” she said. “Like wanting to give teachers guns to make schools safer. He has a whole position of ‘no, no, no’ when we’re facing great needs in the state.”

Titus cited Nevada’s aging infrastructure and overcrowded classrooms as examples.

Beers, who ousted a 20-year incumbent in the 2004 GOP primary and finished second in the 2006 Republican gubernatorial prmary, could not be reached for comment.

So with the battlegrounds selected, where are the combatants?

“There are several people that we’re talking to,” said Titus, who declined to list specific names of potential Senate candidates. “It’s all in the mix right now. We’re optimistic that we’re going to have real good candidates and we expect to have it wrapped up before the holidays.”