New poll, from the only polling firm that got New Hampshire right, shows Nevada tight on both sides

By Wally Edge

After New Hampshire, should you believe the pollsters? The Reno Gazette-Journal poll, conducted by Research 2000, has a new Nevada presidential caucus poll that shows Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in a statistical dead heat among likely Democratic caucus voters: Obama 32%, Clinton 30%. And John Edwards is in range with 27%.

On the Republican side, the poll has John McCain and Rudy Giuliani in also in a dead heat, with McCain leading 22%-18%. Mike Huckabee is at 16%, Mitt Romney is at 15%, Fred Thompson at 11%, Ron Paul at 6%, and Duncan Hunter at 1%.

The RGJ poll was conducted by Research 2000.

The last time Research 2000 polled Nevadans was in November -- a long time ago in political terms – and the numbers were substantially different: Clinton led Obama 45%-20%, with Edwards at 27%. And Giuliani led Romney, 29%-22%, with Thompson at 15%, McCain at 8%, and Huckabee at 6%.

For the record, Research 2000 did fairly well in predicting New Hampshire at a time when other polling firms got the results wrong. Research 2000’s last poll had Obama leading Clinton, 34%-33%; the actual numbers were 39%-36%. And the firm had McCain leading Romney 35%-29% -- again a close resemblance to the final 37%-32% results.

WALLY EDGE can be reached via email at politickernv@aol.com.