Nevada's big test

LAS VEGAS – There are a lot of questions about today’s Nevada Caucuses. The questions include who will win? How will they win? How many people will show up to caucus? What does it mean to win here or lose here?

But really just stop. Hold the questions. There is no way to answer them.

Sure there are polls out. Those polls show that Mitt Romney will likely to win the Republican race here. They also show Hillary Clinton with a single digit lead in a tight Democratic race.

But what do these polls mean anyway? Consider that Nevada has about a million registered voters. The best estimates are that somewhere between 28,000 and 80,000 Democrats and around 20,000 to 40,000 Republicans will caucus. Add up the highest turnout estimates and you are looking at just over 10 percent of the population who will actually vote. Were pollsters able to weed out 90 percent of the population to only sample that 10 percent and even if they pulled a miracle and were able to get some how many were still undecided.

It is not all the pollsters fault. The truth is no one has a clue as to what precise voter turnout number will be. The campaigns openly admit their turnout models are based on guesses. The reason is simple: Nevada has never done this before. Still, what makes anyone believe that these polls are even remotely accurate especially after pollsters were so wrong in a primary state like New Hampshire?

With so many questions about the electorate there are even more questions about who will win and on what issues they will win on.

Then there is the process. It was only Thursday that a lawsuit was thrown out that finally defined where Democratic caucus locations will be. Republicans had their own problems when the state party mailed thousands of postcards giving incorrect caucus locations. There was so much confusion raised that Republican candidate Ron Paul asked that the Republican caucus be delayed.

With all of the growing pains and the unexpected, the Nevada Caucuses, a concept conceived just a 1 ½ years ago are more relevant and more powerful than anyone had ever imagined.

But the biggest test today is not for Mitt Romney or Hillary Clinton. It is for Nevada. If Nevada is able to pull this off in a legit and transparent way – and with a heavy Latino participation – a Nevada Caucus tradition could begin. If the state embarrasses itself this could be the first and only time Nevada mattered.