Analysis: Does Breeden stand a chance in SD-5?

LAS VEGAS-Months ago, intent on retaking the state senate, Nevada Democrats cast their sights on Senate District 5 as one of two key targets. But hopes of capturing the seat may be fading as their candidate, a self-described "political unknown," has failed to win the endorsement of one of the pillars of the state Democratic establishment, the Nevada State Education Association.

And the endorsement of incumbent state Sen. Joe Heck (R-Henderson) by the state's teachers' union is just the latest in a series of missed opportunities for state Democrats that have led some Democratic operatives to believe their candidate, Shirley Breeden, is unlikely to defeat Heck.

Although former Nevada Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus last year predicted a candidate in the district "before the holidays," nearly six months passed before the state Democratic Legislative Caucus announced Breeden's name. During that time, Allison Copening, the Democratic candidate in Senate District 6, was introduced to the Clark County Democratic Convention by Titus, held a kick-off event and begun walking her district and raising funds.

While Titus continued to predict an endorsement in a matter of weeks, Assemblywoman Susan Gerhardt's name was consistently floated as a possible candidate, but her own retirement announcement left Democrats scrambling to recruit a candidate against a tough Republican opponent in Assembly District 29 as well.

In May, Senate Democrats chose state Sen. Steven Horsford to replace Titus as head of the Democratic Senate Caucus. When asked about a candidate in SD5 then, Horsford answered that he was "very optimistic" they could get a candidate by the filing deadline. Breeden filed only hours before the deadline closed.

According to Breeden, it was Horsford, not Titus, who called her personally and asked her to run.

Meanwhile, Heck, an Army Reserve Colonel, served a nearly four month deployment to Iraq and returned in May to find his district so far uncontested. Sean Fellows, the Republican candidate in Assembly District 29, had also been hard at work organizing in his district for months.

The 29th Assembly District, which represented more than 20 percent of Heck's districts' voters in the 2006 election, didn't find a Democratic candidate until late April.

Even since her announcement, Breeden's candidacy has been slow to pick up momentum. Her kick-off event, which was co-hosted by Titus and April Mastroluca, a candidate in the 29th Assembly district, was held only last Saturday and her website is still under construction. Plus, Breeden has taken at least two trips out of the district in the less than four weeks since her filing. She is currently spending four days in Boston with her family.

Although its immediate impact may be small, the NSEA's endorsement may represent an acknowledgment that at this stage, they see Heck as unbeatable.

According to Breeden, the NSEA explained their decision as based on Heck's incumbency. The union, however, has a record of endorsing Democratic challengers over Republican incumbents, most recently with Democratic state Sen. Joyce Woodbury over former state Sen. Tiffany Sandra in the same district in 2006.

David Damore, professor of political science at UNLV, said the NSEA endorsing Heck is nearly unprecedented.

"They're pretty much knee-jerk for the Democrats," said Damore. "Particularly in what might be a competitive race there."

"Maybe they don't think that [Breeden]'s got a chance to win, so might as well go with Joe Heck," said Damore. "If Republicans control the senate still, he'll have a lot of say on the budget."

Kirsten Searer, deputy executive director of the Nevada Democratic Party, cautioned not to read too much into the union's decision.

"Union endorsements are going to go back and forth," said Searer. "The fact is that [Breeden] has lived in this community for years, she raised her family here, she's well-known and she's going to lay out an argument for why SD-5 needs a change in leadership."

Searer also said the other races in play in that area will play a key role in Breeden's ability to get Democratic votes.

"Let's look at the Barack Obama factor," said Searer. "Even before they set up shop, they said that [the 3rd Congressional District] is going to be one of their top targets. CD-3 is where it's happening; this is where the election will be fought."