Can Heller withstand another Democratic wave?

U.S. Rep. Dean HellerLAS VEGAS -- Three straight Democratic special election wins have members of both parties expecting bad news for congressional Republicans in the fall and in Nevada, the 3rd congressional district is virtually guaranteed to be home to one of the tightest races in the country. But with newly elected Democrats coming from three strongly conservative seats, Democrats are daring to dream that Nevada's 2nd congressional district may also go blue.

This year, the 2nd district will again see Democratic former university regent Jill Derby square off against Republican U.S. Rep. Dean Heller in a strongly conservative district that has never seated a Democrat in its 26 years of existence. Two of the special election upsets came in districts even more strongly Republican, however, and Democrats are quick to point to similarities between the three.

"Democratic victories in three consecutive special elections in districts President Bush won easily make it abundantly clear the American people have had enough with the special interest driven agenda of Dean Heller and the Republican Party," said Yoni Cohen, western regional press secretary for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

"With Jill Derby reflecting Nevada values and focusing on the economic issues Nevada families care most about, Heller has a tough race this year."

Nevada's 2nd district voted 57 percent for President Bush in 2004, which is less than the 62 percent that Bush received in Mississippi's 1st District, now home to new Democratic U.S. Rep. Travis Childers, or the 59 percent Bush won in Louisiana's 6th District, now home to Democratic U.S. Rep. Don Cazayoux.

Like those two new congressmen, Derby is running as a "moderate to conservative" Democrat, as shown by her endorsement last week by the Democrats' Blue Dog Coalition.

"With Jill Derby, we are going to build on our success in the recent special elections where Don Cazayoux in Louisiana and Travis Childers in Mississippi took over longtime Republican-held seats," said Blue Dog co-chair Rep. Mike Ross (D-Ark.) in announcing the endorsement.

"We believe this is just the beginning of a trend where we see a lot more of Republicans who are out of touch with their constituents being replaced with Blue Dog Democrats."

Democrats are not alone in seeing seeds of November in those three races.

Last week, U.S. Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), a former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, sent a much-publicized memo to Republican leaders in which he wrote that those races were "canaries in the coal mine, warning of far greater losses in the fall, if steps are not taken to remedy the current climate."

"Members and pundits waiting for Democrats to fumble the ball, so that soft Republicans and Independents will snap back to the GOP, fail to understand the deep seeded antipathy toward the President, the war, gas prices, the economy, foreclosures and, in some areas, the underlying cultural differences that continue to brand our party."

Davis also listed several non-issue problems for Republicans in 2008, among them Democrats' considerable fundraising advantage at the national level. At the end of March, the DCCC had $44 million cash-on-hand compared to $7 million for their Republican counterpart.

"If Dean Heller gets into trouble, he's on his own," said University of Nevada Reno political science professor Erik Herzik."I think a lot of Republican candidates know that the national party, the money, is just not there for them."

Despite Democrats' confidence and Republican difficulties, however, there are several reasons not to push the panic button on Heller yet.

First, there is no guarantee that Derby will receive considerable support from the DCCC. Although she was endorsed by their "Red-to-Blue" program in 2006 and expects it again this year, Democrats would have to be doing very well in many higher-tiered races before they would put valuable resources into such a difficult race.

"[Democrats] have quite a bit of defense too that they're playing," said National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Julie Shutley. "There's a lot of House Democrats that were elected in this kind of sweep last cycle in 2006 that have taken votes that have been against things that they said when they were running. They're going to have to spread those resources pretty thin and I know that we'll be able to be competitive where we need to be."

Also, although Democrats have improved on their voter registration numbers since 2006, the Republican advantage in the district is still considerable. Forty-five percent of the district's voters are Republicans compared to 37 percent Democrats.

"It's still an overwhelmingly Republican district," said Herzik. "Heller is not invincible in this race, but he is the favorite."

Herzik also cautioned not to read too much into Democrats' successes elsewhere.

"There were two special elections going into the 2006 elections. One was down in San Diego and the Republican won. But 2006 was basically a good year for Democrats. So you can make too much of the special elections that lead into the general election. It's an indicator, but you can't say it's the only indicator."

Heller's chances have improved since 2006 in other ways also. That year, he was hit hard from the right during a costly primary and had to spend a lot of money just to get to the general election. This year, he does not face a serious primary challenge and has come out solidly for conservative causes, endearing him to a Republican base that was somewhat unsure of him before.

"Congressman Heller has only strengthened his relationship with his constituents," said Zach Moyle, executive director of the Nevada Republican Party. "He did have that difficult primary and there were people that were at first frustrated with him. Now, those same people are just singing his praises."

"Nevada is a state that is still strong with conservative values and certainly when it comes to the 2nd congressional district, that's exactly where they stand. Yes, it's a difficult atmosphere, but Nevada is one of those states that has shown time and time again that they're going to buck that trend."

The variable, of course, will be the race at the top of the ticket, something not in play in the special elections. Today, it's still not clear either which Democrat will be their party's nominee or how presumptive Republican nominee John McCain will fare in Nevada. With a Democratic Party growing more divided with each primary and a Republican Party tarnished by an unpopular administration, only time will tell if the top of the ticket can ensure a win for Heller or ruin him.