Rove War III vs. Politics 2.0

What is apparent from the national party conventions is that the two parties are pursuing very different strategies in their quest for 270 Electoral College votes. The Republicans are essentially using the Karl Rove model of 2000 and 2004, while the Democrats are putting forth a new take on a very old model used throughout American history to upend the status quo and usher in new governing majorities.

Which side comes out on top will largely be a function of how the 2008 presidential election plays out. If 2008 is "a big election, about small things," then the GOP should be able to continue using the Executive Branch to run the country into the ground. However, if 2008 is a transformational moment in American political history, then do not be surprised to see Barack Obama in the White House come January.

While much attention has been given to discussing George Bush's legacy in terms of how he has worked so hard to create such an unfavorable political environment for his party, the Bush years have another legacy. In both 2000 and 2004, Bush's political team, led by Karl Rove, won two very close presidential elections by defying the conventional wisdom. Instead of seeking to move to the middle of the political spectrum and persuade independent voters, Rove opted to run to the Republican base. 

Using huge databases detailing people's political and religious characteristics, as well as information about their buying habits and other tidbits, the Republicans identified and mobilized significant numbers of untapped GOP voters.  These voters were energized not with substantive discussions of policy and issues, but with personal persuasion and a diet of negative personal attacks designed to distract from the Democrats' issue advantages (surveys from 2000 and 2004, just as is the case in 2008, indicate that a majority of Americans favor the Democrats across a host of policies and issues).

Having been a casualty of Rove War I during the 2000 Republican nomination campaign, John McCain repeatedly vowed to run an issue based campaign devoid of personal attacks. However, after McCain's failure to unify the GOP base, attract Latino voters, or dent the Democrats' lead, McCain retooled his campaign in the middle of the summer and put Karl Rove acolyte Steve Schmidt in charge of strategy. 

Over night, the tone and management of the McCain operation changed. Gone were the free-wheeling discussions with the media aboard the McCain campaign bus, as well as any attempt to discuss issues beyond partisan platitudes. McCain's embrace of the dark side came full circle with his vice presidential selection. After Joe Liberman and Tom Ridge were shot down because of their pro-choice leanings, McCain settled on the social conservative maven Sarah Palin, whose selection at least brought the remnants of the religious right into the fold.  Next, instead of using the convention to lay out any semblance of a plan outlining where he would take the nation, McCain chose to once again wrap the GOP in the flag and use the primetime addresses to unleash an onslaught of smug personal attacks against the opposition. 

The appeal of the Rove model is obvious. First, it has worked before; otherwise we would not have had to suffer under two terms of W. Second, it allows McCain to avoid any substantive discussion of issues or policy that has had a tendency to get him in hot water with the Republican base.  Instead, McCain hopes that undecided voters will be so smitten with his and Palin's personal narratives that these voters will not notice that the Republican ticket is in lockstep with George Bush. Third, by focusing their efforts on turning out voters most favorable to the GOP, the McCain campaign can make efficient use of its resources; a must given Obama's cash advantage. Finally, by seeking to define Obama, McCain hopes to plant enough doubt in the minds of enough late deciders so that when they enter the voting booth they will be less likely to buck the status quo.

At the same time, the Rove model in 2008 carries a number of risks.  Running a negative, partisan campaign undercuts McCain's message that he seeks to rise above the rancor and reach across the aisle. Second, thanks to Bush and Rove, the Republican base is now smaller, older, and if this is possible, whiter (36 African American delegates in 2008; a 78 percent decline from 2004!). Third, given recent surveys indicating that more and more Americans are weary of the role of religion in our politics, choosing a running mate who single handedly has reignited the culture wars might not be the most prudent decision. Indeed, while independents and swing voters are a fickle bunch, one thing we know that they do not want is socially conservative positions on abortion, gay rights, and stem cell research (same goes for any remaining Hillary Clinton dead-enders). Lastly, by sticking to the old playbook, the GOP runs the risk of further being defined by its most strident positions and personalities.

In contrast, Obama has updated for the digital age a model of political transformation that in at least three prior cases resulted in the creation of lasting governing majorities. To wit, whereas the Martin Van Buren engineered and Andrew Jackson led Democrats used the abolishment of property requirements to mobilize a newly franchised motley crew of voters to relegate the Federalists to the dust pan of history; And FDR cobbled together labor unions and urban Catholic and Jewish communities with the post-Civil War solid South to create the New Deal coalition; And conservatives paired the dividends of the Southern strategy with big money donations, direct mail, and religious outreach to mobilize social, economic, and foreign policy conservatives to elect Ronald Reagan in 1980; Obama has taken the Howard Dean model of 2004 and put it on steroids.

The net result is that in slaying the most formidable Democratic organization in recent memory with little initial help from the party establishment, Obama has mobilized huge numbers of the politically alienated (i.e., young voters and African Americans) and converted others put off by Republican incompetence, corruption, and divisiveness.  The scope and alacrity of the Obama operation was on full display during the Republican Convention.  No sooner had Sarah Palin finished throwing the red meat then Obama raised more than $10 million from over 130,000 donors (roughly 12 percent of the total money available to McCain).  

In contrast, with the exception of Ron Paul, the only innovation that the Republicans have made this cycle is the interjection of a reality television show surrounding the party's vice presidential selection (think Phyllis Schlafly meets Northern Exposure meets The Dukes of Hazard).  While this is consistent with the McCain campaign's pledge to emphasize personalities over issues, it has had the delicious consequence of forcing many self-righteous Republicans to choke on their sanctimonious edicts about their party's claims to family values.  John Ensign was particularly pathetic in his attempt to run away from prior remarks about unwed mothers.

So why, as so many have lamented, is Obama struggling?  The answer I suspect has something to do with the effectiveness of the GOP attacks and the fact that the country remains closely, although not deeply divided.  He also has a thin resume and isn't there something I heard about him being half black? Thus, if he wins it will not be by much. 

If Obama does win, however, he can count on more co-partisans in the House and a near filibuster working coalition in the Senate (55 to 57 Democrats and a handful of sensible Republicans from the Northeast and Oregon); conditions that should allow gridlock to be broken on a number of issues. This is something that John McCain will be unable to do unless he adopts much of Obama's agenda.  So while the Republicans may have had a good time in Minneapolis making sport of Obama's experience as a community organizer, they may find out soon enough exactly what a community organizer does. 

David Damore is a political scientist at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas.