Nevada's back in the spotlight

This past week saw Nevada return to the national spotlight on a number of fronts. Most notably, with the Democratic and Republican Party national conventions on deck in the coming weeks, the general election campaign is (finally) about to begin.

On cue, the national media has begun to focus attention on the lay of the land in the swing states.  Recent polls indicate that Nevada is one of a handful of states that are within the margin of error (the others, according to pollster.com, are Ohio, Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, Florida, Virginia, Alaska, North Carolina, and New Hampshire; all but the last being states won by Bush in 2004).

As a consequence, last week I received inquiries from the Economist, the Los Angeles Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Washington Post, and Agence France Presse seeking information about the presidential campaign in Nevada. Although the state has been marginally in play the last two presidential elections and hosted early caucuses last winter, the Silver State remains very much a mystery in the national political landscape. 

Indeed, most discussions with national reporters tend to begin with generic questions about the state's demographic changes, the importance of Yucca Mountain, and our laughingstock of a governor. Beyond that, Nevada appears to be a blank slate east of the Rockies. Nonetheless, what also becomes apparent is that Nevada's time as a player in presidential politics has arrived. 

To this end, the state's worsening economic and housing conditions, increasing Democratic strength, waning support for the war in Iraq, demographic diversity, and potential role in the nation's future energy policy succinctly encapsulate much of what the 2008 presidential campaign is about. At the same time, neither side has done much to address the issues on the minds of Nevada voters in a meaningful way other than John McCain's call for new nuclear power plants and his continued support for Yucca Mountain. 

The Harry Reid-organized National Clean Energy Summit this past week at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas also brought the state a good deal of positive national attention. This was Reid's second major coup in 2008. Following the record and expectations breaking Democratic caucuses in January, Reid again demonstrated his clout by bringing together a bipartisan group of stakeholders including Swift Boat patron T. Boone Pickens, former President Bill Clinton (who repeated his prior challenge to Nevada to get with the alternative energy program), New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, and GOP Utah Gov. John Huntsman among others to address the nation's energy future. The opportunity also provided Reid with the chance to snub his son's potential 2010 gubernatorial opponent, Jim Gibbons. Hopefully for the sake of Nevada's sagging economy and for those Americans tired of funding both sides of the terrorism battle, the Cox Pavilion forum will result in more than just talk.

On a low note, this past week Nevada's favorite veterinarian once again embarrassed himself on the national stage. Following on the heels of his ham-fisted failure to derail the foreclosure relief bill, U.S. Sen. John Ensign publicly called out his GOP Senate colleagues for failing to cough up the cash necessary to keep afloat the sinking ship that is known as the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Somehow in an environment that overwhelmingly tilts against his party, it escapes Ensign as to why his Senate brethren are unwilling to invest in the out classed crop of candidates that he recruited to try to defend all of those open Senate seats that were abandoned by veteran Republicans who, unlike Ensign, see the writing on the wall. 

Ensign has stated that a good outcome this November would be losing only four seats; a slightly better showing than the effort championed by his 2006 predecessor, U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina. Because of the stinginess of his colleagues, the NRSC will now have to come off of the air in North Carolina, New Hampshire, Oregon and Colorado. New Hampshire and Colorado look like wins for the Democrats, which coupled with GOP losses in New Mexico and Virginia and potential loses in Alaska and Oregon, could give Nevada's other senator 57 votes with which to operate come January 2009.  And who said that Ensign's leadership of the NRSC would lead to tensions with Harry Reid? Instead, it looks as if Ensign is Reid's best ally in increasing the Democrats control over the Senate.

On a final note, Barack Obama's selection of U.S. Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware is unlikely to move the needle in Nevada (for what it is worth, my pick was U.S. Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia). The selection of Biden does, however, help to lock up Pennsylvania for the Democrats and as a consequence, put more pressure on McCain to win in Ohio and Florida; absolute necessities for the GOP if New Hampshire stays blue and some combination of Montana, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, or Nevada flips. Under such a scenario McCain may find Obama's cash advantage too much to overcome and he may be forced to allocate his finite resources to those swing states with the biggest Electoral College prizes.

David Damore is a political scientist at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas.