2010 governor's race begins to take shape

With the next election cycle already shaping up to be one of the most exciting in Nevada's history, some observers are looking toward a 2010 governor's race that could end up being one of the most interesting races in the nation.

Anticipation has kicked into overdrive due in part to a handful of Democrats vying for the shot to take down incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons (R-Sparks), who has a 21 percent approval rating, according to a recent poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research in Washington D.C.

At the head of the pack is Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid (D-Henderson), son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who surveyed 601 voters in a private poll that sized him up against both Gibbons and Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley to the tune of favorable results.

Against Gibbons, Reid's numbers look good by a margin of 49 to 32 percent, according to Reid's own poll. They look even better next to Buckley, with a substantial gap of 51 to 20 percent.

The Democratic Party is optimistic about its chances against Gibbons, should he decide to run again.

"At this point in time, it would be a smooth ride," said state senator Michael Schneider. "There could be any number of candidates - I don't think Reid is the only one that is viable. I know that several people are looking at it - and I think any of them beat Gibbons."

Among those considering a run, according to political consultant Jim Ferrence, is Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman - a name that could be big enough to cause Reid some problems before he even gets to take on Gibbons.

"If I was Rory Reid, Oscar Goodman would scare me in the primary," said Dr. Kenneth Fernandez, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, who cited Goodman's popularity and blunt personality.

It still remains to be seen if Gibbons will stake a claim at a second-term as governor, given his plummeting popularity. While consultants on both sides of the aisle are guessing that Gibbons' first term will be his last term, the governor himself has not commented.

"There's always the temptation to run again because you don't have much to lose," Fernandez said. "I think it depends on the writing on the wall - if it looks like there will be strong contenders in the Republican primary, he's going to face not only a strong Democratic challenge but also in the primary that it becomes too expensive and too exhaustive."

If Republicans want to keep a Republican in the governor's chair, state Sen. Maggie Carlton (D-Las Vegas) has one piece of advice for party leaders:

"I would find someone to offer him another job in another state and have him just get the hell out of Dodge," she said. "Get him off the slate and have him become a non-issue so you can frame your candidate without him being around or showing up at any functions."