Analysts weigh in on Ensign missive

WASHINGTON -- National Republican Senatorial Committee chair John Ensign’s public lashing of his fellow Republicans for failing to fill the organization’s coffers hit the nation’s capitol like a thunderbolt.

“It’s the kind of rhetoric you would expect to see behind the scenes but not in a statement from a committee chairman,” remarked Nathan Gonzales, an analyst for the Rothenberg Political Report.

But what does Ensign’s move say about the committee’s fundraising efforts and the Senate playing field heading into the fall?

Jenniffer Duffy, an analyst for the Cook Political Report, said that while the statement was jolting it didn’t come as a complete surprise. Less than a month ago, Duffy noted, Ensign put out a similar public statement aimed to pressure his Republican colleagues.

“I’m not surprised. I’m just surprised he put it out,” Duffy said of today’s missive.

Gonzales, pointing to the committee’s fundraising difficulties, said Ensign was being honest in his assessment. At the end of July, the NRSC had $25 million in the bank to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s $43 million.

“It was pretty stunning for its boldness and bluntness,” noted Gonzales.

"I recently challenged my colleagues to step up to the plate and help me provide the resources our candidates need to compete in races across the country -- to match the DSCC expenditures in targeted races,” Ensign said in the Friday morning missive. “It has become clear that my call has gone largely unanswered.”

As for why the Las Vegan was having difficulty convincing his Republican colleagues to contribute, Josh Kraushaar, who reports on Senate races for the Politico, speculated that members saw a dismal Senate playing field and that they were better off keeping their cash for themselves.

“They see the writing is on the wall for Republican Senate candidates and they don’t think their money can go a long way,” said Kraushaar.

Kraushaar argued that Ensign’s problems were in part self-inflicted, noting that the senator from Nevada had failed to recruit strong challengers for Democratic-held seats in states such as Montana, Arkansas and Iowa.

Duffy said Ensign’s frustration was understandable with the DSCC’s cash on hand advantage giving Democratic candidates a financial leg up in races that were otherwise even on the money front.

But Duffy said there was one financial bright side for Ensign and the Republicans this cycle: the proliferation of conservative third party groups like American Future Fund and Freedom’s Watch that were pouring money into competitive Senate contests.